Ohio Moves to the Obama Column, Leaving Him Close But Still Short of an Electoral College Victory

Another Guaranteed Election Prediction – Guaranteed Until the Next Prediction

A Cincinnati Enquirer poll several days ago showed the Presidential race in Ohio tied, but more recent polls show Mr. Obama with enough of a lead to put Ohio back into his column.  So here is how the Presidential race will turn out.

In Ohio Mr. Romney is running ads which claim that the Chrysler company after being rescued by the Obama administration has shipped jobs to China to make Jeeps.  This is a blatant lie.  The problem for Mr. Romney in Ohio is that auto workers are very intelligent, and this ad will not only not be helpful to Mr. Romney it will hurt his chances.  So that, along with the polling flips the state to Mr. Obama.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Michigan	16
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucky	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29	Ohio	18
Mississippi	6	Virginia	13	Oregon	7
North Dakota	3	Wisconsin	10	Rhode Island	4
Nebraska	5	Colorado	9	Vermont	3
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		110	Certain	156		105
Competitive	110			Competitive	105
Total	277			Total	261

So Mr. Obama can now win if he picks up Wisconsin, Colorado or Virginia, or failing that he gets Nevada and New Hampshire.

And at least one Conservative publication is looking to Wisconsin to, in their words, “save America.”

The problem is that Ohio is usually more Republican than Wisconsin in presidential elections. Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004 by 3.5 and 2.1 points, respectively, while losing Wisconsin each time by less than one-half of 1 percentage point. In 2008, Obama’s margin of victory was 9 points higher in Wisconsin than in Ohio.

It would be unusual, to say the least, for a Republican to lose Ohio and win Wisconsin. But there are at least five reasons why Romney could break the trend in 2012.

Here’s a message to Wisconsin:  You guys have embarrassed yourself with your choice of Governor.  You owe us one.