A Week Before the Election It is a Dead Heat – With Mr. Romney Still Favored by This Site

As Florida Drops to Mr. Romney, Ohio and Virginia are Key for Mr. Obama

It is about one week before this long, awful Presidential campaign is over, and about two weeks before the 2016 race begins.  Here is how things look here, based on national polling, state polling and the author’s seat of the pants polling.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Michigan	16
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucky	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29
Mississippi	6	Virginia	13	Oregon	7
North Dakota	3	Wisconsin	10	Rhode Island	4
Nebraska	5	Colorado	9	Vermont	3
Oklahoma	7	Ohio	18
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		128	Certain	156		87
Competitive	128			Competitive	87
Total	295			Total	243

At this point Mr. Obama has two strategies to win.  He can carry Ohio and Virginia, or he can sweep Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Colorado (or some combination, but there are too many of those to think about).

Ohio is interesting, the most expert of the experts, Nate Silver claims the state is not a toss-up.

October 27, 2012

Ohio Is Not a Toss Up

Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio -- made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days -- and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

"There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election."

and while we would normally defer to Mr. Silver, unfortunately there is this.

The race for the White House continues to be too close to call in Ohio, according to a new Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll that shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters.

That’s a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group’s September poll.

Romney’s support grew among males, among high school and college graduates and among respondents in every age category except 18 to 29.

which is the very definition of a toss up. 

So yes, the time period is finite, and in about 10 days everyone will know the results.  And then back to economics, the really important stuff.